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Everyday Life · Question 3

Do I have what I need to get ahead?

Education access, training, infrastructure, and whether the ladder up still has rungs on it.

Getting ahead used to mean: get an education, get online, learn a trade, and end up better off than your parents. Here's whether those rungs are still on the ladder.

Is college pulling out of reach for working families?

Yes. Since 2000 the cost of a 4-year degree rose about 60% in real terms while the typical family's income barely moved.

Tuition values are average undergraduate tuition + fees + room + board at 4-year institutions (all types). From 2000 to 2022, tuition+fees rose 60% in real terms while median household income was roughly flat.

Values are approximate composites from NCES and BestColleges analysis of NCES data, adjusted to 2024 dollars. Public in-state is cheaper (~$24,900 in 2024-25); private nonprofit much higher (~$40,700). Cross-check against NCES Table 330.10 for exact figures.

Measured outcomeSource: NCES Digest of Education Statistics Table 330.10 (tuition); Census Bureau (median household income). All values in 2024 constant dollars.

Are students starting adult life buried in debt?

Increasingly. Average federal student-loan debt more than doubled, from $18,233 (2007) to $37,850 (2024).

Generational comparison at same age (Boomers@30 vs Millennials@30) requires deeper pull from Federal Reserve SCF microdata. The time series above shows the trend clearly.

Measured outcomeSource: Federal Reserve + Dept. of Education via Education Data Initiative

Do kids still end up better off than their parents?

Less and less. 92% of kids born in 1940 out-earned their parents; for those born in 1984, it's a coin flip, 50%.

What that costs you: Chetty's team found that spreading the same economic growth more evenly (not growing faster) would restore most of the lost mobility.

This is THE American Dream chart. The decline from 92% to 50% is driven primarily by the distribution of growth, not the rate of growth, Chetty found that redistributing the same GDP growth more equally would restore mobility to ~80%.

Some researchers (Davis, Minneapolis Fed) find a smaller decline (~3pp vs 21pp for the 1942-64 cohorts) when relaxing the copula stability assumption. Present Chetty's numbers as the primary finding but note the methodological debate exists.

Measured outcomeSource: Chetty et al. (2017), 'The Fading American Dream,' Science. Opportunity Insights, equality-of-opportunity.org

Can lower-income families get online to compete?

The gap is closing but still real, 71% of households under $20k had home broadband in 2023 versus 98% of those over $75k.

Households under $25k/year consistently have the lowest broadband access. The digital divide narrowed 2015-2022 but remains substantial. Affordable Connectivity Program (23M households) ended May 2024 when Congress didn't reauthorize funding.

Income brackets vary slightly by ACS vintage. Values here are approximate from SHADAC analysis. For exact figures, pull Census ACS Table S2801 directly.

Measured outcomeSource: Census ACS Table S2801 via SHADAC State Health Compare; FCC broadband deployment reports

Is there a path up that isn't a four-year degree?

Yes, and it's growing, registered apprenticeships rose from about 375,000 (2013) to 630,000 (2023).

DOL publishes exact figures in annual RAPIDS reports. Values here from DOL press releases and ETA reports, cross-check for precision.

Measured outcomeSource: DOL Registered Apprenticeship Partners Information Data System (RAPIDS)
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